CMA Predictions: Part 2

I was just skimming over the list of all the performers for the show this year and it looks like this is the year of the collaborations. There's always a few, but it seems like there's more than usual this time. Zac Brown Band will be joined by Dave Grohl of the Foo Fighters, Hunter Hayes will be performing his new single with Jason Mraz, Keith Urban and Miranda Lambert are singing their new duet and Taylor Swift will be performing with Vince Gill and Alison Krauss among others. And then Alan Jackson and George Strait will be teaming up to honor George Jones. There'll also be a special tribute to Kenny Rogers that will include Rascal Flatts, Jennifer Nettles and Darius Rucker. I don't know; just seems like more than usual this year. Should be interesting.

In any event, in Part 1 of my predictions I talked about Entertainer, Male Vocalist, Female Vocalist, New Artist, Group and Duo. Now it's time to shift focus a bit. Starting off with…

Album of the Year

The nominees:

Based on a True Story, Blake Shelton

Blown Away, Carrie Underwood

Red, Taylor Swift

Same Trailer Different Park, Kacey Musgraves

Tornado,  Little Big Town

My predicted winner:

Tornado, Little Big Town. I really had to think about this one. You have Blake Shelton, who is an obvious CMA favorite. You have Blown Away, which has given Carrie multiple hits and is my personal favorite of the group. Same Trailer Different Park has gotten some incredible reviews and has earned major praise for Kacey Musgraves. Red is the most successful of the bunch, commercially speaking, selling roughly 3.8 million albums in the United States and about 6 million worldwide. And then there's Tornado, which has given Little Big Town two number 1 singles, their first two number 1's in fact,  and is the second album of theirs to reach platinum status. This is a pretty interesting category this year. There's a case to be made for each of them. I think we can count Blake out, since it's the least talked about of the bunch. The CMA's being more traditional than other awards shows is going to hurt Red's chances because, while not a bad album, it's not a country album; it's a pop album. The critical acclaim of Kacey's album isn't going to hurt her one bit and I can't count her out as easily as I did Blake and Taylor. Carrie has a good shot here, but ultimately I have to go with my gut. And my gut tells me that this one's going to Little Big Town.

Who should win:

Carrie Underwood. As I said, this is my personal favorite of the bunch and I feel it's the most deserving.

What should have been nominated:

Blown Away, Carrie Underwood

Home, Dierks Bentley

Free the Music, Jerrod Niemann

Night Train, Jason Aldean

Same Trailer Different Park, Kacey Musgraves

Hmm, so only two of the actual nominees made the cut. This was actually pretty hard for me. Kacey Musgraves has gotten so much praise for her album that I couldn't leave her out and I absolutely love Blown Away. Night Train is the best album Jason Aldean has ever released and I think it deserved a nod. I complained in Part 1 about how I feel Dierks Bentley deserves more recognition and Home was a very strong album.  Some of you are probably scratching your heads about my including Free the Music. But it was one of my favorite albums released in 2012, in October if I'm not mistaken. It was so creatively done and one of the most interesting albums I've ever heard. Jerrod Niemann is another one who deserves more attention, as far as I'm concerned. It's really hard for me to pick what I'd want to win out of this batch. I'll go with Home. 

Song of the Year - remember: this is awarded to the songwriter(s).

The nominees:

"I Drive Your Truck", written by Jessi Alexander, Connie Harrington and Jimmy Yeary; performed by Lee Brice

"Mama's Broken Heart", written by Brandy Clark, Shane McAnally and Kacey Musgraves; performed by Miranda Lambert

"Merry Go 'Round", written by Shane McAnally, Kacey Musgraves and Josh Osborne; performed by Kacey Musgraves

"Pontoon", written by Barry Dean, Natalie Hemby and Luke Laird; performed by Little Big Town

"Wagon Wheel", written by Bob Dylan and Ketch Secor; performed by Darius Rucker

My predicted winner:

"Mama's Broken Heart" or "I Drive Your Truck". "Pontoon" won Single of the Year at the CMAs last year, so I don't really see it getting Song this year and can't help but question it's nomination. As far as the others, well, this is a strange category for me. I don't see "Wagon Wheel" getting it. "Merry Go 'Round" might have a decent chance. My gut leans more toward "Mama's Broken Heart".

What should win:

"I Drive Your Truck". Potentially controversial opinion time - I think that "I Drive Your Truck" is the only song of the group that deserves to be nominated. This is Song of the Year, the nominees should be the best of the best and most of these just aren't. "Wagon Wheel" has been done so many times and no one ever changes it. It's crazy that it's in the running. I like "Pontoon" a lot, but as I said, it won Single of the Year in 2012. If they wanted to honor Little Big Town, "Tornado" would've made more sense. I just don't believe that any of these songs hold a candle to "I Drive Your Truck". It's such a powerful song and Lee's delivery is perfect. I know this goes to the songwriters, but it had to be said.

What I think should have been nominated:

"Beer with Jesus", Thomas Rhett

"Hope on the Rocks", Toby Keith

"I Drive Your Truck", Lee Brice

"Like Jesus Does", Eric Church

"Only God Could Love You More", Jerrod Niemann

I'm not sure if I can tell you what I'd want to see win if these had been the songs nominated. They were all so well written and meaningful in their own ways. Only one of these songs made it to number 1, "I Drive Your Truck", which I find infuriating. These are the songs that deserve to make it all the way. But that's a rant for another day. 

Single of the Year - this one goes to the artist.

The nominees:

"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"Mama's Broken Heart", Miranda Lambert
"Merry Go 'Round", Kacey Musgraves
"Wagon Wheel", Darius Rucker

My predicted winner:
Either "Cruise" or "Mama's Broken Heart". I'm leaning more towards "Cruise" just because of how big it was. All of these songs did well and this is an interesting category, but there was something about "Cruise" that the other songs didn't have. But "Mama's Broken Heart" is a strong contender too. Honestly, I'd say every song has a solid shot here.

What should win:
"Cruise". Like it or not, the song was a ridiculously big anthem. Still is, in fact. I've seen all of these songs performed live and the reaction to "Cruise" blew the others away.

What I think should have been nominated:
"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"How Country Feels", Randy Houser
"Merry Go 'Round", Kacey Musgraves
"The Only Way I Know", Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church

You can go ahead and add Randy Houser to my ever growing list of people who should get more recognition. "How Country Feels" was a big hit for him and should have been included. "The Only Way I Know" - Jason, Luke and Eric on one song? A song that fits each of them perfectly? Yeah, it deserved a nod. I'd probably still want "Cruise" to win though.


Musical Event of the Year
"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies
"Cruise", Florida Georgia Line with Nelly
"Don't Rush", Kelly Clarkson featuring Vince Gill
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban
"The Only Way I Know", Jason Aldean with Luke Bryan and Eric Church

My predicted winner:
"Highway Don't Care". Let's be honest: "Don't Rush" doesn't have a prayer and neither should "Boys 'Round Here". "Cruise" was a huge song, but the remix with Nelly got mixed reviews and remember: this show is more traditional than the rest. This should really be between "Highway Don't Care" and "The Only Way I Know". These are really the only ones that I feel are true vocal events. Duets are cool and I like them, but I think it's more impressive when there's at least three acts. In this case you have some of the biggest names in country music facing off against each other. I have to give the edge to "Highway Don't Care" though.

What should win:
"Highway Don't Care". It's a great song with an important message and is pretty hard to top when it comes to sheer star power.

What should have been nominated:
This is going to be the only case where I'll stick with the actual nominees. Off the top of my head I can't remember any other collaborations that took place this past year. Not any like these. As such, I have to stick with the real list.


Music Video of the Year - like duo of the year, there are 6 nominees in this category due to a tie in the voting.
The nominees:
"Blown Away", Carrie Underwood; directed by Randee St. Nicholas
"Boys 'Round Here", Blake Shelton featuring Pistol Annies; directed by Trey Fanjoy
"Downtown", Lady Antebellum; directed by Peter Zavadil
"Highway Don't Care", Tim McGraw with Taylor Swift and Keith Urban; directed by Shane Drake
"Mama's Broken Heart", Miranda Lambert; directed by Trey Fanjoy

"Tornado", Little Big Town; directed by Shane Drake

My predicted winner:
"Tornado" or "Blown Away"…or "Highway Don't Care". This is a really tough one; probably the toughest one for me to predict. I'm leaning towards "Tornado" at the moment, but I keep going back and forth between the three. This may be the category I'm most curious about. Which makes the fact that it'll most likely be announced on the red carpet instead of during the show more annoying than usual. The red carpet will be broadcast on GAC, by the way. At 7/6 Central.

What should win:
"Highway Don't Care". Hard to beat a video that doubles as an important lesson for anyone tempted to text and drive.

What should have been nominated:
"Blown Away", Carrie Underwood; directed by Randee St. Nicholas
"Creepin'", Eric Church; directed by Peter Zavadil
"Hope on the Rocks", Toby Keith; directed by Michael Salomon
"I Drive Your Truck", Lee Brice; directed by Eric Welch
"Only God Could Love You More", Jerrod Niemann; directed by Eric Welch

All fantastic videos, but my favorite of the bunch is "Creepin'". Easily the coolest video I've ever seen. So that'd be my pick to win.


Musician of the Year
The nominees:
Sam Bush, mandolin

Paul Franklin, steel guitar

Dann Huff, guitar

Brent Mason, guitar
Mac McAnally, guitar

My predicted winner:
Either Mac McAnally or Paul Franklin. Mac McAnally has won this year multiple years in a row and could very well continue that streak this year. But Paul Franklin has gotten a lot of attention recently with album he did with Vince Gill, Bakerfield, so maybe he'll take this one home.

Who should win:
Paul Franklin. For his wonderful work on Bakerfield and for the simple fact that he is one of the best steel guitar players around. But honestly? All of these gentlemen are great musicians and really, I could say that they all would deserve a win. I give the edge to Paul Franklin because the steel guitar happens to be my favorite instrument. So there you go.

Who I think should have been nominated:
What do you know? I thought that musical event was going to be the only category where I kept all the original nominees, but than I decided to include this one. Hard to argue with these five so I won't.

And that'll do it. Thanks, as always, for reading!